NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: FireKeepers Casino 400
After last week's race at Pocono, we go to Michigan for what could be the most exciting race of the season thus far. In the past, Michigan has been known as a track that races in traditional single-file fashion in what can only be deemed as a lap-turning affair. This year's race should be much different, and we got a glimpse of that in second practice, when pack racing was more prevalent. Restarts will be wild to say the least.
This will make for some unique lineup builds in DFS. As a note, be sure to check the weather as there is rain expected for Sunday morning. If this becomes a rain-shortened race (like last spring's race), then prioritize drivers starting closer to the front.
Here at numberFire, we've always got you covered for everything NASCAR DFS. Our track preview gives you more information about Michigan, our driver preview helps bring you up to speed on recent driver history, and our Heat Check Podcast with Jim Sannes gives you insight to how he is approaching this weekend's slate.
Kyle Busch ($15,500) - Salary aside, Busch is the easiest play on the board in my eyes. He's a fantastic driver who is starting in 15th and can easily accumulate place-differential points as well as high finishing points. The younger Busch has been blowing past his competition this season, and there's no reason why that should stop now. Busch has the highest season-long driver rating in the field, at 109. If you look at any 2019 stat for either season-long or recent form, there is no real reason (other than salary concerns) why a Busch fade would be justified. He is a safe play in all formats.
Joey Logano ($13,500) - Logano, who is on the pole, is an easy choice to be a candidate to garner laps-led points. Being that there are only 200 laps, it will be critical to Logano's DFS value for him to lead a good portion of those laps in order for him to be worth rostering. Fortunately, he's very capable of doing just that. Logano trails only Chase Elliot in top-five finishes over the last six races, and he carries one of the highest driver ratings among the field in that span.
Alex Bowman ($10,500) - Bowman is too hot of a driver right now to consider fading when he is starting in 20th. This seems like an easy spot to pick up place-differential points. Looking at only his last six races, Bowman has racked up four top-10 showings, including a trio of top-five finishes -- with a stretch of three straight races in which he finished in second. His numbers at Michigan have not been great, but the new style of racing we will see lessens the importance of track history. Bowman is red-hot right now and had the 11th-fastest 10-lap average in practice, showing us he can move up from his starting spot.
William Byron ($8,800) - In recent races, Byron has started up in the field and has lost track position as races have gone on. But he has made up for it with his early dominator point totals. This is not a luxury he will enjoy this week, however, as he's starting in 21st. Byron is another driver, like Bowman, where it makes sense to look at recent form over season-long form or track history. In his last four races, Byron has managed the eighth-best driver rating in the field, at 93. Yes, some of this has to do with the higher importance in track position at tracks like Charlotte and Pocono, but there is also a large skill component of the driver rating formula. Byron is another place-differential candidate at Michigan, though he is likely best suited for GPPs.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($8,500) - The type of racing we have seen this season tracks similar to Michigan -- such as Kansas -- would lead me to believe that this race will suit Stenhouse's racing style much more so than past Michigan races have. One of the keys to performing well here is being aggressive on restarts along with the ability to pull away in pack-style racing -- two things we have seen Stenhouse become an expert at over the years. He's far from safe, but as long as Stenhouse can at least maintain his track position -- he's starting 10th -- he can be a worthwhile play.
Chris Buescher ($7,300) - Buescher will likely be chalk, but you may just have to swallow the chalk with him this week. He is very cheap and starting in 31st, which has become a weekly staple for Buescher. His season-long and recent form point to something like a top-20 finish, which would make him well worth the cost at this price point. Due to his expected high ownership, you do have to at least think about fading him. It's tough to do it, though, given his salary and place-differential capability.
Evan Cheney is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Evan Cheney also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username theman90210. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.