5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/11/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals ($2,000)
A lot of the appealing value on this slate is priced up closer to $3,000, so getting Michael Taylor at the minimum salary is really easy to like here.
His production has largely been terrible in 2019, with a .267 wOBA and a whopping 41.2% strikeout rate. He's hitting the ball surprisingly well though, with a huge 54.5% hard-hit rate over that 68 plate appearance sample.
He's also dealt with same-sided matchups for 43 of those plate appearances. When he's had the platoon advantage he's typically looked a lot more competent at the dish, with hard-hit rates north of 36% in three of the last four seasons, with a combined .308 wOBA and .162 ISO in the split since 2016.
His matchup tonight is against a particularly vulnerable lefty in Manny Banuelos, who has only managed a 5.14 skill-interactive ERA in 18 career major league games, including a 5.29 in his 11 games in 2019.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Colorado Rockies ($3,000)
Tonight's Coors Field matchup has a 12-run over/under, and even as underdogs against lefty Jose Quintana and the Chicago Cubs, the Colorado Rockies' 5.74-run implied total stacks up as the second-best on the slate.
Quintana doesn't make for an overly concerning matchup, with a 4.22 SIERA on the year. He posted a 4.39 in 2018, and over the last two years he's giving up a 4.40 xFIP and 35.7% fly-ball rate to right-handed bats.
Brendan Rodgers has an awful .251 wOBA through his first 59 major league plate appearances, but he's shown some promise from the dish in the minors, with a .438 wOBA and .289 ISO in 152 Triple-A plate appearances this year. He doesn't need to come even close to those minor league marks to offer some big upside in a spot like this either, with the platoon advantage and a huge implied total in the most hitter-friendly park in the majors.
Howie Kendrick, 1B, Washington Nationals ($3,000)
Going back to the Nats, they rank just behind the two Coors Field teams with a 5.41-run implied total, and there should be plenty of scoring to go around against Banuelos and the Chicago White Sox.
It's a surprise that we're still getting Howie Kendrick priced this low, considering he's sporting a .402 wOBA and .270 ISO over 178 plate appearances this season. This is so far ahead of what we're used to seeing from him that we can bank on some regression, but even his numbers from the last two years (.361 wOBA and .161 ISO in 2017, .342 wOBA and .171 ISO in 2018) would be strong for a guy at this price-tag.
He's also making some of the best contact of his career in 2019, with his highest ever hard-hit rate (43.5%) and an 11.6% soft-hit rate that marks his lowest since 2013, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him out-produce the marks he posted in the last two seasons. Combining that with his matchup makes him really easy to like on Tuesday.
Brock Holt, 2B, Boston Red Sox ($2,600)
Speaking of matchup, that's really what puts Brock Holt into play tonight. The Boston Red Sox offense tends to be tough to get exposure to on the cheap, but Holt is very affordable in a great matchup against Ariel Jurado and the Texas Rangers.
Jurado has an impressive-looking 2.78 ERA over 13 games this year, but that belies his struggles, which include a 4.19 SIERA, bringing his career-average to 4.84 over 25 major league outings. He also continues to struggle with contact, giving up a 37.2% hard-hit rate, which brings his career-average to 40.8%.
His improved 2019 numbers still include a 5.09 xFIP against the 75 left-handed hitters he's faced too, while his 8.0% walk rate in the split climbs close to his 13.3% strikeout rate. Over his career (182 batters faced) we see an 11.5% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and, 5.25 xFIP in the split.
Those are numbers that can make even the most pedestrian hitters look good, and that's big for Brock Holt. His .316 wOBA on the year is perfectly pedestrian, and his .338 mark in 2018 wasn't much to write home about either. He gets the platoon advantage against Jurado though, and he has a .339 wOBA against right-handed pitchers since 2018.
Nick Markakis, OF, Atlanta Braves ($2,900)
Nick Markakis has a reasonable .339 wOBA on the year, which is only a slight decline from the .345 he posted in 2018. He's got a 41.6% hard-hit and 10.9% soft-hit rate after knocking 40.6% hard-hits and 13.8% soft-hits last year, and in that time he's tagged right-handed pitchers .358 wOBA.
Today he's up against Pittsburgh Pirates righty Chris Archer, who has turned in a very disappointing 2019 campaign. The once-ace has struggled to the tune of a 4.95 SIERA over 10 starts, with a career-worst 11.8% walk rate and a 22.3% strikeout rate that marks his lowest since 2014. His average fastball velocity has been declining steadily, from 95.5 miles per hour in 2017 to 94.7 last year and 93.6 in 2019, and he's allowing a hard-hit rate north of 39% for the third consecutive season.
The Braves have an implied total north of 5 runs here, and while this is once a spot you'd steer clear of, Markakis could give Chris Archer some trouble tonight.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.